CFMEU Analysis

Estimating the cost impact of CFMEU practices on Victoria's Big Build.

What it shows

  • Total Big Build spend subject to CFMEU EBAs.
  • Estimated corruption/compliance premium (from Watson SC report and Royal Commission evidence).
  • Dollar estimate of the premium applied to current Big Build spend.
  • CFMEU donation history to political parties.
  • Project-by-project breakdown of exposure.

How to read it

The "premium" is not our number. It is drawn from the Watson SC Report into the CFMEU Victorian Building Division and cross-checked against Royal Commission findings. We apply that percentage to current Big Build project spend to estimate the dollar cost.

Data sources

  • Watson SC Report (2024) — primary source for the ~15% premium.
  • Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption — historical cost evidence.
  • AEC disclosures — CFMEU donation history.
  • BP4 — Big Build project list and TEI values.

Caveats

  • The premium percentage is an estimate from a legal/economic report, not a directly observed figure.
  • Not every Big Build dollar is subject to an EBA. We flag which projects are in scope.
  • Donations from the CFMEU are legal and disclosed.
  • Donations — CFMEU donation history in the broader context.
  • Cost Drift — see which Big Build projects are drifting worst.

Last reviewed: 11 Apr 2026