Blowout Predictors

A heuristic model flagging projects likely to drift further based on historical patterns.

What it shows

For each active project: - A risk score (0–100) based on measurable factors. - The contributing signals (e.g. "TEI revised 3 times in 2 years", "completion date slipped by >18 months", "delivery entity has history of drift on similar projects"). - A peer comparison against projects of similar sector and scale.

How to read it

This is a heuristic, not a forecast. A high risk score means the project shares observable traits with historically-drifting projects. It does not mean the project will blow out.

Use the risk score to decide what to watch — not what to conclude.

Data sources

  • Every TEI snapshot in the database.
  • Completion date changes.
  • Delivery entity historical performance.
  • Scope change logs.

Caveats

  • The model sees public data only. Internal project health is not visible.
  • Pattern matching on historical BP4s is biased by whatever our dataset contains.
  • High-risk doesn't imply misconduct — it implies complexity, ambition, or poor planning.
  • Cost Drift — the historical record the model learns from.
  • Project Detail — see the risk signals for a specific project.

Last reviewed: 11 Apr 2026