CFMEU Analysis
Hook
How much is CFMEU influence costing Victoria's Big Build? A senior counsel has put a number on it.
Key Numbers
- ~15% — estimated premium on Big Build costs [Watson SC Report 2024]
- ~$15 billion — the dollar estimate applied to current Big Build spend [Watson SC + BP4]
- $4.07 million — CFMEU donations to ALP 1998–2015 [AEC]
- Royal Commission evidence corroborates historical premiums [TURC 2015]
Context
The Watson SC Report into the CFMEU Victorian Building Division estimated a corruption and compliance premium of around 15% on construction costs. That is not our number — it is drawn from a legal report commissioned after a series of findings about the union's conduct in Victoria. Apply that 15% to current Big Build spend and you get a ballpark of around $15 billion in premium costs absorbed into project budgets.
Separately, the CFMEU has donated more than $4 million to the ALP in disclosed federal returns over almost two decades. Donations are legal. The premium is not illegal in itself — it is what certain enterprise bargaining and compliance practices can cost once they are priced in.
Takeaway
You can have strong unions and affordable public infrastructure. When the premium reaches 15%, something has gone wrong with the balance — and taxpayers are the ones paying for it.
Share Stat
A senior counsel estimated the CFMEU premium at 15% of Big Build costs. That's around $15 billion.
Last reviewed: 11 Apr 2026