Blowout Predictors
Hook
Can we predict which projects will blow out next? A heuristic model ranks the risks.
Key Numbers
- Every active project scored 0–100 [heuristic model]
- Signals include: TEI revisions, schedule slips, delivery entity history [historical BP4]
- Peer comparison within sector and scale bands [model design]
Context
This page is an early-warning heuristic. It looks at every active major project and scores it against observable patterns from projects that have historically drifted — number of TEI revisions, schedule slippages, delivery entity track record, scope change velocity, and peer comparisons within the same sector and size band.
It is deliberately called a predictor, not a forecast. The score is a flag for "this project shares traits with others that blew out". It is not a claim that this project will blow out. Use the score to decide what to watch, not what to conclude.
The most valuable use is early detection. Projects often drift quietly before the blowout becomes visible in headline numbers. The signals show up earlier in the data.
Takeaway
If a high-risk score turns out to be wrong, that's fine. If it turns out to be right, you heard it here first — from public data.
Share Stat
A risk score for every active Victorian megaproject, built from the patterns of the ones that already blew out.
Last reviewed: 11 Apr 2026